What It Does
The Multi-Method Stock Valuation Calculator estimates a stock’s intrinsic value per share using three methods: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), and Price-to-Earnings (P/E). It combines these with customizable weights to produce a weighted average intrinsic value, helping you determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued against its market price. A sensitivity toggle offers three weighting scenarios—Conservative (dividend and cash flow focus), Balanced (cash flow emphasis), and Growth (market potential focus)—to suit different investment perspectives.
How to Use It
Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s intrinsic value, using examples like Access Bank Ghana (174 million shares) or MTN Ghana (13.2 billion shares):
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Access the Calculator: Go to younginvestorcalculator.com/multi-method-valuation or select “Multi-Method Stock Valuation” from the homepage.
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Choose Weighting Scenario: Select a scenario from the dropdown to set method weights.
- Conservative: 30% DDM Base, 20% DDM Sensitivity, 30% DCF, 20% P/E. Suits dividend-focused firms like Standard Chartered Ghana.
- Balanced: 20% DDM Base, 20% DDM Sensitivity, 40% DCF, 20% P/E. Ideal for cash flow-strong firms like MTN Ghana.
- Growth: 20% DDM Base, 20% DDM Sensitivity, 30% DCF, 30% P/E. Best for growth stocks like Access Bank Ghana.
- Tip: Test all scenarios to assess how weights impact the intrinsic value, especially for banks (DDM-heavy) or growth firms (P/E-heavy).
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Enter General Parameters: Input market and growth assumptions.
- Current Stock Price (GHS): Obtain from gse.com.gh. Example: 9.20 GHS for Access Bank (2025 estimate).
- Number of Years for High Growth: Choose 3–5 years based on growth phase. Use 5 years for expanding firms like Access Bank or MTN Ghana.
- High-Growth Rate (%): Estimate from historical revenue or earnings growth on annualreportsghana.com. Example: 12% for Access Bank (bank sector), 15% for MTN Ghana.
- Terminal Growth Rate (%): Align with Ghana’s GDP growth (e.g., 5.7% in 2025, data.worldbank.org) or industry average. Example: 4% for MTN Ghana.
- Discount Rate (%): Calculate cost of equity using CAPM:
- Discount Rate = Risk-Free Rate + Beta × (Market Return - Risk-Free Rate)
- Risk-Free Rate: Ghana’s 10-year bond yield (e.g., 9.9%) from bog.gov.gh.
- Market Return: GSE historical returns (e.g., 22%) from afx.kwayisi.org/gse/.
- Beta: Obtain from afx.kwayisi.org/gse/ or our Beta Calculator. Example: 0.50 for Access Bank (low risk), 1.314 for MTN Ghana.
- Example: For Access Bank, 9.9% + 0.50 × (22% - 9.9%) ≈ 16%; for MTN Ghana, 31.01%.
- Where to Find Data: Financial reports on gse.com.gh or analyst estimates.
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Enter DDM Parameters: Input dividend data for the Dividend Discount Model.
- Base Dividend per Share (GHS): Current or projected dividend per share from gse.com.gh. Example: 0.50 GHS for Access Bank (40% payout on EPS of 1.25 GHS), 0.12 GHS for MTN Ghana.
- Sensitivity Dividend per Share (GHS): Higher dividend scenario (e.g., special dividend). Example: 0.75 GHS for Access Bank, 0.2208 GHS for MTN Ghana (147.2% payout).
- Where to Find Data: Dividend history in annual reports on annualreportsghana.com. Calculate as: Total Dividends ÷ Shares Outstanding (e.g., Access Bank: 174 million; MTN Ghana: 13.2 billion).
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Enter DCF Parameters: Input free cash flow data for the Discounted Cash Flow model.
- Current FCFE per Share (GHS): Free Cash Flow to Equity per share, calculated as:
- FCFE = Net Income - Net Capex - Change in Working Capital + Net Borrowing
- FCFE per Share = FCFE ÷ Shares Outstanding
- Example: 0.80 GHS for Access Bank (estimated), 0.0430 GHS for MTN Ghana.
- Where to Find Data: Income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet on annualreportsghana.com. Use our FCF Calculator for guidance.
- Note: For banks like Access Bank, adjust FCFE for loan provisions and regulatory capital; for telecoms like MTN Ghana, account for high capex.
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Enter P/E Parameters: Input earnings data for the Price-to-Earnings approach.
- Current EPS (GHS): Earnings per Share = Net Income ÷ Shares Outstanding. Example: 1.25 GHS for Access Bank, 0.15 GHS for MTN Ghana.
- EPS Growth Rate (%): Align with high-growth rate or historical earnings growth. Example: 12% for Access Bank, 15% for MTN Ghana.
- P/E Multiple: Reflects market valuation of earnings. Obtain as follows:
- Industry Average: Check sector P/E ratios on afx.kwayisi.org/gse/ or financial platforms like finance.yahoo.com. Example: 8–12x for banks (Access Bank), 15–20x for telecoms (MTN Ghana).
- Historical P/E: Review the company’s past P/E ratios on gse.com.gh or afx.kwayisi.org/gse/. Use the average over 3–5 years.
- Analyst Targets: Use forward P/E from analyst reports or platforms like Bloomberg. Example: 10x for Access Bank, 20x for MTN Ghana.
- Tip: Choose a conservative multiple for stable firms, higher for growth firms.
- Projection Years for P/E: Number of years to project EPS growth, typically 1–3 years. Determine as follows:
- Short-Term (1 Year): Default for stable firms or uncertain markets. Use if analyst forecasts are reliable for 1 year (check gse.com.gh).
- Medium-Term (2–3 Years): Suitable for growth firms with predictable earnings trends. Base on historical growth stability or analyst projections from annualreportsghana.com.
- Example: 1 year for Access Bank (bank sector volatility), 1 year for MTN Ghana (default).
- Tip: Shorter periods reduce forecasting errors; longer periods suit high-growth firms.
- Where to Find Data: Income statement for EPS, market data for P/E on annualreportsghana.com or afx.kwayisi.org/gse/.
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Calculate: Click “Calculate” to generate results.
- Output: “Table 1: Intrinsic Value Summary” displays:
- Intrinsic values per share for DDM Base, DDM Sensitivity, DCF, and P/E.
- Weights (e.g., 20%, 20%, 40%, 20% for Balanced).
- Weighted average intrinsic value per share.
- Over/undervaluation percentage: ((Current Price ÷ Intrinsic Value) - 1) × 100%.
- Example: For Access Bank, intrinsic value of 12.50 GHS vs. 9.20 GHS suggests ~35.9% undervaluation. For MTN Ghana, 1.6862 GHS vs. 2.83 GHS indicates ~67.8% overvaluation.
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Interpret Results: Analyze the output to make decisions.
- If intrinsic value > market price, the stock may be undervalued (buy opportunity).
- If intrinsic value < market price, the stock may be overvalued (sell or hold).
- Compare across scenarios (Conservative, Balanced, Growth) to gauge sensitivity.
Tips
- Use accurate per-share data from gse.com.gh or annualreportsghana.com. Divide financials by shares outstanding (e.g., 174 million for Access Bank, 13.2 billion for MTN Ghana) to get EPS, FCFE, dividends per share.
- Keep growth rates conservative: 5–15% for high growth, 3–6% for terminal, per data.worldbank.org.
- Use sector-specific P/E multiples: 8–12x for banks, 15–20x for telecoms.
- For banks like Access Bank, adjust FCFE for loan provisions and regulatory capital; for telecoms like MTN Ghana, account for high capex.
- Test all weighting scenarios to understand valuation range in volatile markets (e.g., GSE’s 56.17% return in 2024).
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Use current financials (2024 or 2025) from gse.com.gh, not outdated data.
- Justify high discount rates (e.g., 31.01% for MTN Ghana due to beta 1.314; 16% for Access Bank is typical).
- Avoid overestimating dividends or FCFE, especially for banks with regulatory constraints.
- Ensure P/E multiples align with industry and market conditions on afx.kwayisi.org/gse/.
- Enter positive monetary values and rates between 0–100%, as the calculator validates inputs.
Go to Multi-Method Stock Valuation Calculator